Quantifying the potential impact of energy efficiency and low carbon policies for China

In 2006, China set for the first time a binding target for energy efficiency by requiring a 20% reduction in energy intensity per unit of GDP from 2005 to 2010 and began initiating sector-specific policies and measures to support further reductions in energy and CO₂ intensity through 2015 and 2020. While data on achievements of some industrial energy-saving programs has been reported, there are limited estimates on the potential impact of many existing and potential new policies and no consistent methodology for defining baselines and calculating savings potential, making policy prioritization and evaluation difficult for policymakers. This paper presents a prospective analysis of policy-specific energy savings and emissions reductions through 2030 for key existing policies and new policies likely to be implemented in the buildings, industry and transport sectors.

This paper evaluates building policies that include: more stringent building codes, building energy labelling programs, district heating, metering and controls, and retrofits; industry policies that include efficiency improvements for 7 energy-intensive industries, technology switching for cement, iron and steel and aluminum industries, and use of alternative fuels for cement industry; and transport policies that include fuel economy standards, hybrid and electric vehicles, bus rapid transit and car-trip diversion strategies. LBNL's China Energy End Use Bottom-up Model was used to evaluate transport and industrial policies along with Excel-based spreadsheet model to evaluate building policies. Although simplifying assumptions and model parameter uncertainties could affect total savings potential estimates for specific policies, this paper help guide policy prioritization in China by identifying and highlighting the policies with the highest magnitude of savings potential such as building codes, fuel economy standards and industrial efficiency policies.