Non-Constant Learning Rates in Retrospective Experience Curve Analyses and their Correlation to Deployment Programs

A key challenge for policy-makers and technology market forecasters is to estimate future technology costs and in particular the rate of cost reduction versus production volume. A related, critical question is what role should state and federal governments have in advancing energy efficient and renewable energy technologies? This work provides retrospective experience curves and learning rates for several energy-related technologies, each of which have a known history of federal and state deployment programs. We derive learning rates for eight technologies including energy efficient lighting technologies, stationary fuel cell systems, and residential solar photovoltaics, and provide an overview and timeline of historical deployment programs such as state and federal standards and state and national incentive programs for each technology. Piecewise linear regimes are observed in a range of technology experience curves, and public investments or deployment programs are found to be strongly correlated to an increase in learning rate across multiple technologies. A downward bend in the experience curve is found in 5 out of the 8 energy-related technologies presented here (electronic ballasts, magnetic ballasts, compact fluorescent lighting, general service fluorescent lighting, and the installed cost of solar PV). In each of the five downward-bending experience curves, we believe that an increase in the learning rate can be linked to deployment programs to some degree. This work sheds light on the endogenous versus exogenous contributions to technological innovation and highlights the impact of exogenous government sponsored deployment programs. This work can inform future policy investment direction and can shed light on market transformation and technology learning behavior.