China's Pilot Low-carbon City Initiative: A Comparative Assessment of National Goals and Local Plans

In the past decade, China's unprecedented urbanization has paralleled a 250% growth in primary energy demand and urban areas have emerged as the crux of energy and CO₂ emissions reduction in China. In recognition of cities’ importance in mitigating future energy and CO₂ emissions growth, the Chinese government launched a demonstration program of 5 low-carbon pilot provinces and 8 pilot cities in 2010 to promote low-carbon urban development. As one of the first national programs to promote low-carbon urban development, the recent plans and policies adopted by these 8 pilot low-carbon cities can shed light on if and how low-carbon cities can shape China's future energy and emission trajectories. This paper reviews the historical development and context for low-carbon urban development in China and then presents an ex-ante comparative assessment of the low-carbon development plans and supporting measures formulated for each of China's 8 pilot low-carbon cities. We find that while the 8 pilot cities have made progress in establishing low-carbon plans, key barriers such as a lack of explicit definition for low-carbon city, complexity and confusion resulting from several parallel programs, and insufficient supporting policies and market-based instruments may hinder urban development that is truly low carbon.