Air Pollutant Emissions Projection for the Cement and Steel Industry in China and the Impact of Emissions Control Technologies

China’s cement and steel industry accounts for around half of the world’s total cement and steel production. These two industries are two of the most energy-intensive and highest carbon dioxide (CO₂)-emitting industries and two of the key industrial contributors to air pollution in China. For example, cement industry is the largest source of particulate matter (PM) emissions in China, accounting for 40 percent of industrial PM emissions and 27 percent of total national PM emissions. Chinese steel industry contributed to about 20% of sulfur dioxide (SO₂) emissions, and 27% of PM emissions for all key manufacturing industry in China in 2013. In this study, we analyzed and projected the total PM and SO₂ emissions from the Chinese cement and steel industry during 2010-2050 under three different scenarios. We used the bottom-up emissions control technologies data and assumptions to make the emissions projections. Furthermore, we conducted an economic analysis to estimate the cost for PM emissions reduction in the Chinese cement industry using end-of-pipe control technologies, energy efficiency measures, and product change measures.

The results of the emissions projection showed that there is not a substantial difference between PM emissions of Base Case and Advanced scenario for both cement and steel industry. However, the Advanced EOP scenario has a significantly lower PM emissions for cement industry reaching to 4 million ton PM in 2050 that is less than half of that in other two scenarios. Advanced EOP scenario also has the lowest SO₂ emissions for the cement industry in China reaching to 212 thousand ton SO₂ in 2050 which is equal to 40% of the SO₂ emissions in Advanced scenario and 30% of the emissions of Base Case scenario. For the steel industry, the SO₂ emissions of Advanced EOP scenario is significantly lower than the other scenarios with emissions declining to 323 thousand ton in 2050 which is equal to 21% and 17% of the emissions of Advanced and Base Case scenario in 2050, respectively.

Results of economic analysis show that for the Chinese cement industry, end-of-pipe PM control technologies have the lowest abatement cost per ton of PM reduced followed by product change measures and energy efficiency measures, respectively.